Friday, May 09, 2008

El precio del petróleo seguirá subiendo pero no hay que entrar en pánico. Vainas simples como vivir más cerca del sitio de trabajo y no comer vainas traídas desde 15,000kms de distancia serán comunes dentro de unos años. La civilización occidental no va a colapsar como bien lo dice este man:
Savinar assumes that rising prices will wreck civilization, with no other effects. Changing prices are information in motion for a free market economy, signaling changes in the environment and forcing people act. The author ignore these mechanisms.

A. Substitute other things for energy. Convenience (car pool or buses instead of driving alone to work or play). Higher cost goods from local suppliers for cheaper but distant goods. Substitute rail for truck transport. Local vacations for trips to Disneyland, Las Vegas, or Europe. Light clothing for air conditioning; sweaters for heating. Tele-conferencing for meetings.

B. Make investments (capital expenditures) to increase energy energy efficiency. Insulation. More efficient motors. Hybrid cars.

C. Make investments to substitute other forms of energy for petroleum. Replace gasoline and diesel vehicles with electric cars, trucks, farm vehicles. Solar panels replace diesel generators. Electricity and water can replace natural gas in the production of fertilizer. Convert coal to liquid fuel.

D. Innovation: higher prices spark innovation, both new ways to do things and new technology

1 comment:

JCV said...

Me suena como a Goyeneche, que propuso techar a Bogotá para evitar que lloviera tanto y pavimentar el Combeima para evirar que se desbordara...